Conspiracy Theory

No, not just a lame movie with Mel Gibson, Julia Roberts, government cover-ups, mind control, and silent helicopters (I know it actually sounds cool but trust me not so much). I am talking about the recent rumblings from certain people that the current NBA Playoffs are NOT on the level. Sure, these loonies (or “truth” tellers as they call themselves) also believe that we have landed on the moon and that the Iraq war was a deliberately concocted scheme designed to profit friends and lobbyists. Craziness, I know. But what if…

So let’s get that paranoia feeling flowing and channel our best Oliver Stone impersonations as we take a look at the NBA: Conspiracy Style.

Some would have you believe that this all started way back in the off-season. Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen surreptitiously arrived in Bean Town suddenly and dramatically reviving one of the classic basketball powerhouses in NBA History. Oh, and also a historically strong television ratings team. Hmmm. Next comes the mid-season steal, I mean deal, that sent Pau Gasol to the Los Angeles Lakers for Kwame Brown. Again, some might say this was a lop-sided trade. I would argue however that Kwame is great at (not) catching the ball. Just a thought.

And so we have two classic big market teams rising to the top seeds in both the East and the West after arguably two of the most one-sided trades in recent NBA memory. A positive for the League one might think. Conspiracy theorists are rolling.

Fast forward on to the playoffs. The Celtics have struggled but continue to hold home court and are 1 game away from grabbing a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lakers on the other side are also 1 game away from punching their ticket into the Finals of the Western Conference. In the most recent game 5 of the Lakers/Jazz series there was a controversial no-call on Pau Gasol’s offensive rebound and dunk over Mehmet Okur late in the 4^th Quarter. Conspiracy or flop?

Let’s take a look at the fouls. In the Lakers/Jazz series, the Lakers through 5 games have 123 fouls compared to the 149 fouls called on the Jazz. That equates to 25 per game for the Lakers versus 30 per game for the Jazz. If you look at the regular season numbers, the Lakers averaged 21 fouls per game and the Jazz averaged 24 fouls per game. The Jazz do happen to foul the most out of any team in the League during the regular season. The difference between the two in the series taking into account the regular season average is plus or minus 2 fouls; not much support for the conspiracy theorists here.

Looking at the other series in the Playoffs, you have teams like the Spurs (one game away from getting into the Western Finals) and the Pistons (already into the Eastern Finals now for the 6^th straight season) that do NOT bring big television audiences and yet they continue to win. Yet another knock against the conspiracy proponents.

And now we even have players becoming “believers”. Chris Paul said to the score’s table during last night’s blowout to the Spurs “It’s almost like someone called them (the refs) up at halftime and said ‘let them boys win’”. Interesting comment CP3, and even more intriguing is his country slang. Makes me wonder if he had a straw cowboy hat on chewing some tobacca while he made that comment.

Of course, the whole Tim Donaghy thing this past summer surely doesn’t help the non-conspiracy group. But think about the level of complexity involved in rigging a game. There are so many moving pieces in a basketball contest. The game has to play out a certain way for the refs to even have the opportunity to decide it. And gross discrepancies in calls or “phantom” calls just don’t happen out there. The only level of conspiracy I could accept would possibly be one ref being instructed that if the game is close and there is a 50/50 call then they make it based on the team with the higher TV ratings. I could maybe see something like that happening. But I just don’t buy it.

The fallout from a collusion strategy such as this one would be astronomic. The risks far outweigh the rewards because IF the NBA was to get caught trying to influence the outcomes then there would be great damage to the brand and the viewership. Greater I believe than the positive results of a higher televised series one year where no Detroit and no San Antonio appear in the Finals. Of course, if my team gets knocked out then hell yeah this whole thing is rigged!