NBA Predictions

This NBA season has had more twists and turns than an M. Night Shayamalan movie (Bruce Willis is dead; I so did NOT see that coming). From referee gambling scandals to blockbuster trades in the preseason (KG and Jesus Shuttlesworth to the Celts) to blockbuster trades during the regular season (Gasol, Diesel, J Kidd) to big names coming out of retirement (Webber, Cassell-coming from the Clippers is the same diff) to record-breaking winning streaks (Rockets won’t even make it out of the first round in the West and they have the second longest winning streak in NBA history); maybe the NBA really is where amazing happens. Any way you look at it, a whole lot has gone down this year. And there still is another month left till the playoffs. Imagine what sort of craziness is going to ensue over the coming weeks…

Well, no worries cause I'm gonna tell you what will happen. Just call me Basketball Nostradamus. Sure you might say that it’s impossible to pick the winners ‘cause we don’t even know all the teams in the playoffs. And this is true, but after filling out my college hoops bracket I am on such a natural high that it’s got me feeling like anything is possible. Don’t worry; I don’t have the Clippers making the playoffs. Personally I find it offensive that you would even think that about me. Being a professional, I take a full proof statistical approach that cannot fail. Sidenote: If you bet money on these picks and lose then I am in no way responsible citing Supreme Court ruling 157B. If you win then I expect 10%. It’s fair.

O.K., so this whole thing can really be broken down into two parts: The West and The Others. I will spend one paragraph on the East and this is it. It’s not just that the East is super boring and not good, but it’s also the whole no one cares thing. I will say that the Celtics have brought some enthusiasm back to the East and are a true title contender but that’s ONE team. And realistically the first rounds of the East couldn’t be more worthless than a condom at an abstinence convention. I mean think about it, the Eastern Conference playoffs are set to include such spectacular squads as Washington, Toronto, Atlanta, and/or New Jersey. Getting excited yet? It just so happens that NONE of these teams would even be remotely close (10-15 games) to the 8^th SEED in the Western Conference. Can you say irrelevant?

Now the West on the other hand, well that’s a different story. After all, the West Side is the Best Side. Tupac knew what he was talking about (which only makes me believe he is still alive that much more). Sports analysts would rather choose the next winner of the World Jai Alai Competitions than have to choose the top team in the Western Conference. You could easily make a case for all 8 playoff teams. And the current 9 slot would be a contender too if the Nuggets could figure out that whole Defense thing.

But I will attempt the impossible and give you the winner coming out of the West. First off, here are my predictions for the standings of the Western Conference at the end of the season:

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. New Orleans Hornets
3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Utah Jazz
5. Phoenix Suns
6. Houston Rockets
7. Golden State Warriors
8. Denver Nuggets

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9. Dallas Mavericks

Before I break down these standings let me first explain how the NBA Playoff Seeding System works (sit down this is rather confusing). The teams with the best records in each of the three divisions (Pacific, Southwest, Northwest) within the Western Conference are declared division champions. These three division champions PLUS the one other team in the Conference with the best record are seeded 1 through 4 based on their records. This guarantees home court advantage in the first round for the division champions being among the top 4 spots. Only 8 teams make it into the Playoffs from each Conference. Never before in recent memory has home court advantage been so huge with the absurd parity in the West. Translation: you want to be in the top 4.

In my opinion the top spot in the Western Conference will come down to two teams; the Lakers and the Hornets. I believe the Spurs are forever jinxed to never win back-to-back titles. That plus I really don’t want to have to watch them for any extended period of time. So on to the rationale.

1.Los Angeles (49-23)

Yes I have the Lakers ending the regular season as the Number One team in the West. And yes I am a Lakers fan. There, I said it. But my decision to pick them as the number 1 seed in the West is completely unbiased and practical. They play 8 of their final 10 games at Staples Center (one is technically a road game against the Clippers but c’mon now) with only four opponents being playoff bound squads. Only half of the teams left on their schedule have winning records. Oh and the two road games are against Portland and Sacramento. Things are looking good in La La Land.

Now granted they are currently two games back of the Hornets in the Loss Column and just loss last night to the lowly Charlotte Bobcats at HOME! I will concede that the Lakers have not been playing their best basketball the past two weeks (5-5 over the past 10 games). I’m guessing the whole no Gasol or Bynum thing plays a factor there. It is true that injuries are by nature unpredictable, which makes this pick that much MORE bold. Gasol is scheduled to return two games from now and Bynum soon thereafter. The Lakers are a completely different team (read: better) with those two guys out on the court. They are in fact, the best team.

And the scary thought is that the real potential of the Lakers is still unknown with Bynum and Gasol having never played TOGETHER. But what is known is that with just ONE of them and sometimes with NEITHER of them out there they were able to win the season series against three of the major Western contenders (Suns, Jazz, Nuggets) and split against the Warriors with the deciding games still left between New Orleans and San Antonio (BOTH remaining games the Lakers play at home). Obviously a lot depends on the return and health of these two key players but I have faith in the witch doctor medicine of Trainer Gary Vitti. Plus I did a rain dance the other day, so we should be good to go.

The Lakers still have one more game to play against New Orleans at home on April 11^th and something tells me the Conference could be on the line in that one. Watch out if Bynum and Gasol are healthy for this matchup. Lakers need a win to split the season series. They play the Spurs two days later at home on the 13^th of April in a game with huge playoff implications as well. The Lakers have proven they can win on the road with the best road record in the West. This is huge come playoff time as will be the experience of their superstar Kobe Bryant. Now if only he can stop getting Techs…

2.New Orleans (49-21)

Who would have thought it? The New Orleans Hornets finishing above the Spurs, Jazz, Mavericks, AND Suns in the Western Conference. No one saw this coming except maybe Alan Greenspan. The Hornets are just as real as global warming. The potential of this team was never achieved last season due to injuries to key players (Stojakovic and Paul). But this year they have been able to stay healthy and rally around the superb play of MVP candidate Chris Paul. This group of youngsters follows their PG anywhere he wants to take them. The Little Engine That Could (as I like to call him) is no taller than 6’0” yet he has put together the best season of any PG in the League (at only 22 years old!) How quickly he stole the mantel away from Stevie.

The biggest thing going against the Hornets is the fact that they have to play 2 more games than most of the top teams remaining. More games in the vicious West means more opportunities to fall in the standings. New Orleans still has to play Boston, Lakers, and Dallas on the road. 8 of their remaining 12 games are in fact on the road. And they have 7 more games against Playoff teams. They are currently riding the longest winning streak in the West at 5 consecutive games. I personally would love to see a Golden State vs. New Orleans first round matchup. Lightning quick PG play on both sides would make for highly entertaining series (translation: lots of points). There is no doubt the Hornets have been the surprise team of the season snatching the West from those perennial Western Conference powerhouses but they will fall just short of the Lakers this year.

3.San Antonio (49-23)

Everyone knows about the Spurs and what they have done winning 4 titles over the past 9 seasons. Or at least a handful of people know that actually watched them. The simple fact about the Spurs is that they are always going to be there. Much like the fact that Matthew McConaughey will be shirtless tomorrow so too will the Spurs be a force to be reckoned with in the Playoffs. They are a team built for long grinding 7-game series boasting staunch defense and battle-tested coaches/players. BUT there is something about this season that tells me it is not their year. Could be the “never repeated before” story or it could be the aging lineup, but I don’t see them getting out of the 2^nd round this year. And IF they do manage to get to the Western Conference Finals then I believe they will certainly not make it to the NBA Finals.

Their remaining 10 games include 4 on the road and 6 against Western Conference Playoff teams. They are riding a 5 game winning streak right now (although this comes off a 4 game losing streak) but have only performed slightly above .500 on the road this year. It has been a rockier year than usual for the steady Spurs. This inconsistency and the wear and tear of having been through to the Finals last season with an older team will result in a 2^nd round exit this year.

4.Utah (47-25)

Nothing is a lock in the Western Conference but I would confidently wager that Utah will finish the regular season as the number 4 seed. They have a “strong” grasp on the weakest division in the West; the Northwest Division (up 3 games over Denver with 10 left to play), but are not going to make up the 2 games separating them from the other top Western squads. Don’t forget this team was in the Western Conference Finals last season. They have the best Home Court record in the entire League and getting in the top 4 will be huge for them. Home Court means the most to Utah than any of the other top teams. It must be the whole no alcohol thing that throws the opponents off when playing in Utah. That’s why John Daly never plays golf tournaments in this state.

Of their remaining 10 games, Utah plays only 4 on the road and that means you can pretty much count at least 6 more wins to their total. They do have to play 7 Playoff teams over this 10 game stretch and the final 6 games of the regular season will be particularly difficult facing the Spurs twice and with road games against New Orleans and Dallas. IF they do end up in the top 4 then watch out for Utah in the Playoffs.

5.Phoenix (47-24)

Phoenix is improving each week (The Big Aristotle actually looks like he is getting back into shape). And it appears Shaq has currently moved into the calling names stage of his post-trade antics (sucks to be Chris Quinn I guess). Amare is playing the best basketball of his career and Grant Hill has new found youth in the desert. The biggest issue for the Suns could be the fact that the West doesn’t seem to fear them any more. The top Western Conference Playoff teams sitting above them in the standings have dominated them this regular season (most notably the Lakers 3-1 and Hornets 4-0). Overall, the Suns have gone 10-4 against the top 4 Seeds this year. Of course the acquisition of Shaq has played a role in changing these statistics.

8 of their final 11 games are against Playoff teams and 6 of the remainders are on the road. I expect them to be bounced in the first round if they are matched up against Utah with the home court advantage. Utah took 2 of the 3 games against Phoenix during the regular season handily. Deron Williams is a tough matchup for Nash and Utah has proven they can force their tempo on the Suns. The Diesel will be swimming in one of his huge pools after the 1^st Round this year. Mark my words.

6. Houston (49-23)

Houston had a great run but much like Mike Myers, it appears that run is over. The adrenaline rush has worn off and the team is coming back to reality. The realization that they have over-achieved is not something that is easy to swallow. Especially when heading into a heated Playoff series where confidence is vital. Of their remaining 10 games, they have 7 on the road and all against Western Conference foes. Ouch.

I still believe the Rockets will get into the Playoffs but I predict a first round exit unfortunately for the NBA’s version of a Cinderella story. They will be matched up against the San Antonio Spurs resulting in the lowest scoring first round series in the history of the League. Can’t wait for that one. The Rockets should be proud of this season though. Losing Yao and managing to still win 12 MORE consecutive games is pretty incredible. I feel bad saying McGrady will lose ANOTHER first round playoff series but I would be lying if I thought they will win. “Do you want me to be honest or do you want me to tell you it’s the first time?”

7. Golden State

The team of misfits will once again crash the NBA Playoff party. Baron’s Fear The Beard Campaign is taking hold of the Bay Area. Making seamlessly even MORE homeless-looking people in San Francisco. I didn’t think it was possible, congratulations B-Diddy. The NBA does Care. The Warriors are leading the League in scoring at 111 points per game. That’s old school baby. They really should permanently rock the throw-back jerseys. Love watching the scoring parade that is Nellie Ball and the old cliché that no one wants to play this team holds true for the Golden State Warriors. Seriously, NO ONE wants to play them in the first round. Their frantic pace and tempo create mismatches for teams and results in an unorthodox style of play.

I have been impressed greatly by the play of Monta Ellis as well as the leadership/steadiness of team captain Stephen Jackson. Of course Baron Davis makes this team go and he will have to play huge for them to make a serious run in the Playoffs. The Warriors play 6 of their remaining 11 games on the road and 7 against Playoff teams. They play twice against Dallas AND Denver, so they pretty much hold the keys to their own destiny. As I see them seeded at the 7 position, they would be playing the New Orleans Hornets in the first round. Talk about an exciting series to watch. Be sure not to blink as both these two teams will race up and down the court. Speed will be the focus and the major asset in this one.

8.Denver

“We talkin’ bout PRACTICE!” Yes we are and the offensive juggernaut that is the Denver Nuggets will somehow squeeze into that Number 8 seed in the West. I said it here first! They will of course be one-and-done once they get make it but that’s neither here nor there. They have two more games against Golden State and just pulled off a victory over Dallas tonight to draw one game closer to that final spot with 10 left to play. 6 of their remaining games are against Playoff teams and half of them are on the road. Denver has struggled on the road this year going 15-21 thus far but two of their remaining 5 road games are at the Clippers and the Sonics. So if they can handle those two road games and take care of home court then I see them jumping over Dallas for the 8^th and final Playoff spot in the Western Conference. Besides, could a team with Allen Iverson AND Carmelo Anthony really not make the playoffs?

9.Dallas

“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist. And like that… he is gone.” The people of Texas are not all-too-happy with me after these predictions, I’m sure. But the Dallas Mavericks fall from grace will be complete after going from Number 1 Seed last season (and losing in the first round to the Baron) to missing the Playoffs this year. This Keyser Soze-esque maneuver is not going to leave many fans in Big D feeling satisfied. I wouldn’t rush to buy a home if I were J-Kidd.

The fact that Dallas will not make the Playoffs is not exactly fair. This team has been dealt a very tough blow with the reigning NBA MVP Dirk Novitzki going down to knee/ankle sprains. I have no doubt they would be IN the Playoffs as a 6 seed if he did not get hurt. But unfortunately he is out indefinitely right now and the lights are fading on Mark Cuban and his Luxury Taxes. The J-Kidd experience has seen mixed reviews (quite literally) with both wins AND losses (Mavs have lost 9 of 19 games since the trade). Playing .500 ball will not exactly get it done in the Western Conference.

In the end, the injury to the Great Deutsch Hope will no doubt result in the second coming of New Jersey Nets J-Kidd pushing the rock and playing more uptempo. I have them getting overtaken by the Nuggets for that 8^th and final playoff spot in the West. IF Dirk can make it back before season ends then there is a chance but it doesn’t look good. Losing to Denver tonight does not bode well for the Mavericks. Their schedule (which includes 6 road games of the remaining 10 and 6 against current Western Conference Playoff teams) does not favor them holding on and staying in the Playoffs either. Sorry Big D there is always football season next year.

WEST FINALS PREVIEW

And so after countless hours of examination and due diligence, the Finals in the West will come down to the Lakers versus the Hornets. And in a hotly contested matchup, I see L.A. coming out on top in the end. Currently the New Orleans Hornets hold a 2-1 regular season series record over the Lakers with 1 game left to be played in L.A. Regular season series records can be deceiving based on when those games took place as well as injuries etc. The Lakers lost to New Orleans in the first week of the season before Bynum really started taking off and won the most recent game in New Orleans without both Bynum and Gasol.

The key area to watch in this series will be how well the Lakers guards can keep Paul out of the lane. Fisher and Farmar will certainly have their work cut out for them in this task. But the biggest asset for the Lakers is having Bynum inside anchoring their defense. They are able to pressure the opposing team’s guards with the knowledge that the long arms of Man-Child Bynum are looming in the paint. The games since he has been out (and especially since Gasol went down) have shown horrendous perimeter defense (there goes MY MAN!) I expect this to revert back once Bynum and Gasol reenter the lineup; making it much more difficult for Paul to probe the interior of the Lakers defense.

Interestingly enough, the strongest one-two punch for the Hornets is the screen roll game with Paul and Chandler. But the Kobe to Bynum/Gasol roll game could arguably be even more effective than the Hornets. Odom and West are pretty much a wash. Radmonovic and Walton will have to stick close to Peja if they want to win the series (Stojakovic hit 10 threes against the Lakers in the first meeting of the season). Chris Paul is making a huge push for MVP this season but the REAL MVP Kobe Bryant will shine this postseason.

In the end, the youth and INEXPERIENCE of the Hornets will catch up with them in the Conference Finals. Kobe’s experience and his sheer determination to win will produce huge dividends for the Lake Show before all is said and done. Don’t underestimate that killer instinct and hardened will of Kobe Bryant. He rivals even the game’s greatest in that category. Also don’t forget he has 3 rings folks. And with the development of Bynum and Gasol having to only play ancillary roles as relative rookies in the playoffs under the tutelage of a veteran like Kobe will be the proverbial nail in the coffin for the Hornets.

So there you have it, go make your bets and remember that I am in no way liable for these outcomes. No one is crazy enough to promise results in the Wild West. Even I know that.